The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects that the volume of international aid will be sufficient for emission-free financing of Ukraine’s budget deficit, despite the increase in defense spending. Therefore, there will be no need to turn on the printing press to issue hryvnia. This is stated in the NBU Inflation Report for October 2025.
Deficit forecast: The NBU revised the budget deficit assumption for 2025 to 25% of GDP, and in 2026 it is expected to decrease to 19% of GDP, and to 14% of GDP in 2027.
International financing forecast: Maintaining a significant deficit will be possible primarily due to significant international financing. The NBU assumes that Ukraine will receive:
$51.5 billion in 2025.
Over $45 billion in 2026.
$39 billion in 2027.
This amount of assistance will allow maintaining international reserves at an adequate level, sufficient to maintain the stability of the foreign exchange market.
The NBU expects international reserves to grow to $53.6 billion by the end of 2025 (the previous forecast was $53.7 billion), to be about $52 billion in 2026 (the July forecast was $44.7 billion) and to exceed $59 billion in 2027 (the July forecast was $45.2 billion).
Bloomberg previously reported that the Ukrainian government is under pressure from the IMF ahead of negotiations on a new loan package. The Fund is demanding a controlled depreciation of the hryvnia.
Andriy Pyshny, the Chairman of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), responded that the issue of exchange rate policy remains within the competence of the Central Bank of Ukraine, despite constant discussions with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
