The National Bank of Ukraine believes that the probable collapse of the so-called “bubble” around artificial intelligence will not have a significant direct impact on the foreign exchange market, financial system or economy of Ukraine. At the same time, indirect consequences may be more tangible. This is stated in the NBU inflation report.
The regulator notes that the main risks for Ukraine are associated with three channels: a possible reduction in the export of IT services, a decrease in remittances from migrant workers, as well as the difficulty of attracting international financial assistance.
At the same time, the NBU also points to potential positive effects. In particular, a slowdown in investment in AI infrastructure may lead to a decrease in world energy prices. This, in turn, will reduce Russia’s export revenues and improve the trade balance of Ukraine, which is an importer of energy resources.
The report also draws attention to the rapid growth of shares of leading American technology companies. The stock prices of the seven largest tech giants increased by 330% in 2023–2025, while the rest of the S&P 500 index added only about 50%. Such a disparity increases fears about the formation of a speculative “bubble”, similar to the dot-com crisis of the late 1990s.
At the same time, the National Bank emphasizes that the current situation has significant differences from the events of twenty years ago. Large technology companies today have stable cash flows and diversified business models, not limited only to the development of AI.
International financial institutions, in particular the IMF, as well as the central banks of the USA and Great Britain, currently assess the risks associated with the AI boom as moderate.
