The National Bank of Ukraine maintains a high level of currency interventions, which allows it to keep the hryvnia exchange rate from sharp fluctuations even despite the unstable situation on the financial markets. According to the ICU investment company, in the near future the dollar exchange rate will remain close to the mark of 41.8 UAH/USD, reports Chas Pik.
Analysts note that the currency deficit on the market decreased by 17% – to 346 million dollars. At the same time, net purchases of currency on the interbank market decreased by 12%, and in the retail segment – by almost 40%. This indicates a decrease in pressure on the market and stabilization of demand.
Over the past week, the NBU did not allow the official hryvnia exchange rate to change by more than 7 kopecks, which indicates a clearly controlled policy. As a result, the hryvnia weakened by only 0.1% to the level of 41.78 UAH/USD. At the same time, the national currency even strengthened by 0.6% against the euro — to 48.84 UAH/euro.
The situation in the retail segment is also stable: the dollar exchange rate in systemically important banks remained within 41.5–42 UAH/dollar.
“In our opinion, the NBU is unlikely to allow the hryvnia to strengthen to spring levels. In the near future, the regulator will maintain the exchange rate near 41.8 UAH per dollar,” the ICU noted.
Analysts believe that the NBU is satisfied with the current balance between the exchange rate and the volume of interventions, which slightly exceed the average weekly values since the beginning of the full-scale war, but do not create additional pressure on reserves.
Weekly results:
Hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar: 41.78 UAH/dollar (change of only 0.1%);
Hryvnia exchange rate against the euro: 48.84 UAH/euro (strengthening by 0.6%);
The foreign exchange deficit has decreased by 17%;
The retail exchange rate is stable — 41.5–42 UAH/USD.
The current currency situation indicates controlled stability, which allows avoiding panic in the cash market. Prices for imports, loans and savings remain more predictable, and restrained exchange rate fluctuations give businesses more confidence in planning.
