In November, wheat exports from Ukraine were very low and amounted to only 1.706 million tons. Seasonal factors continue to dominate, and the price situation on the market currently looks unusually calm. As Delo.ua writes, this was reported by the press service of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (VAR) with reference to the analytical department of the agricultural cooperative PUSK.
According to analysts, the new driver for raising wheat prices could have been sowing, but its impact was offset by favorable weather conditions.
“The condition of the winter crop is assessed as good, there is enough moisture, and forecasts promise additional precipitation. The plants will enter wintering in a normal condition. No problems have been recorded yet. That is why the factor of risky sowing, which could raise prices, no longer affects the market,” experts explain.
They note that the price situation on the market currently looks unusually calm. Traditionally, in November-December, the price of wheat moves up, as importers return to the market after summer purchases.
“But this season the market has been stagnant for two months. In October, the conditional price was $220/t CPT port for class 3, in November — $220–222, and December began in the same corridor. This season, the price of wheat is behaving differently than usual,” analysts comment.
What about exports
Experts note that demand from importers for Ukrainian wheat has begun to appear, but activity is low.
“Last week, purchases were made by Egypt, Lebanon and EU countries, but there is no excitement. This is what holds back prices. The market usually reacts to such a “pause” with a sharp movement in one direction or another, but the probability of growth is much higher,” analysts emphasize.
They predict that in the short term the market will remain stable. Notional prices per ton will remain at $220 for food wheat and $212–214 for feed wheat. Note that this year Ukraine harvested 22.5 million tons of wheat from over 5 million hectares.
