The National Bank of Ukraine is rapidly depleting the state’s gold and foreign exchange reserves, trying to contain the collapse of the national currency. In the last week alone, the regulator has “threw” more than a billion dollars into the interbank market, but even such colossal injections have not stopped the appreciation of foreign currency.
The situation is becoming critical, since the NBU is acting exclusively in one direction – selling off reserves without buying back a single cent. According to analysts of the publication “Minfin”, since the beginning of 2026, more than 8.3 billion dollars have already disappeared from state reserves in this way, which calls into question the duration of such a policy of “artificial respiration” for the market.
Psychological limit crossed
Despite multi-billion currency interventions, the systemic depreciation of the hryvnia continues. Since the beginning of the year, the US dollar has added almost two hryvnias in value, and the euro has confidently crossed the psychological mark of 50 hryvnias. This indicates that the market is experiencing a structural currency deficit, which the state is no longer able to cover with simple sales from storage.
Experts note that the policy of meeting demand at the expense of accumulated reserves has proven ineffective. The currency continues to be washed out of the country, and the hryvnia is losing ground, which will inevitably lead to another jump in prices for imported goods and fuel in the near future.
Reserves under threat of depletion
Such an aggressive strategy of the NBU is causing concern in financial circles. If the pace of “burning” reserves continues, Ukraine will have to look for urgent ways to replenish them, which in wartime depends exclusively on foreign aid. Without new tranches from international partners, it will become physically impossible to maintain the exchange rate even at the current level.
Journalists state that the state is trapped. On the one hand, the cessation of interventions will provoke a panic fall in the hryvnia, and on the other hand, the continued sale of reserves will lead to their complete zeroing. For now, the regulator is choosing the path of gradual depreciation, hoping for a stabilization of the situation in the future.
Consequences for Ukrainians’ wallets
The expensive dollar and euro have already begun to put pressure on retail prices. Businesses, which include the risks of a further fall in the hryvnia in the cost of services, are preparing consumers for new price tags. Each new injection of currency from the NBU only briefly postpones the moment when the exchange rate will go up again due to the lack of real economic growth.
The financial forecast for the spring remains alarming. Analysts advise citizens not to panic, but admit that the stability of the hryvnia is currently based solely on the “validol” injections of the National Bank. The further fate of the exchange rate will depend on whether the regulator has enough reserves until the next large influx of foreign aid.
