According to the results of 2025, the real gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine showed growth of about 2%, which turned out to be lower than previous expectations due to Russia’s systematic attacks on energy, gas production and logistics infrastructure. As Delo.ua writes, this was reported by experts from the Institute of Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IEP). They note that 2025 has become another year of war, resilience and adaptation for Ukraine.
“Russia’s active war against Ukraine continued and was reflected in the loss of territories, the destruction of energy facilities and other critical infrastructure, including railways and seaports. Therefore, according to IEP estimates, in 2025 real GDP grew by about 2%,” the experts emphasize.
Analysts note that the economic dynamics were significantly affected by the weakening of military assistance from the United States after the inauguration of Donald Trump, whose administration chose a course to limit support in order to force negotiations.
At the same time, the European Union played a key role in financial stability, adapting its policy and providing financing through the mechanism of using interest on frozen Russian assets.
Financial support and public debt
During the year, Ukraine received $52.4 billion in international assistance, of which $37.9 billion. within the framework of the ERA support instrument from the Group of Seven. Public debt approached the mark of 100% of GDP. The need for financing remains critical for 2026 (over $50 billion).
Macroeconomic stability and inflation
Summing up the year, the IER noted that inflation in 2025 had a wave-like nature, peaking in May (15.9%) and slowing to 9.3% in November. The NBU kept the discount rate at 15.5% and conducted significant interventions to support the hryvnia, which allowed it to increase gold and foreign exchange reserves to $54.7 billion.
In 2026, experts expect a moderate devaluation of the hryvnia and maintaining GDP growth rates at a level slightly above 2%, provided that foreign aid is received in a timely manner.
Let us recall that according to the NBU, Ukraine’s real GDP in the third quarter of 2025 grew by 2.1% in annual terms, which confirms the forecasts of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) regarding the acceleration of the recovery rate.
