In September, businesses resumed positive assessments of their own economic performance. This is evidenced by the results of a monthly survey by the National Bank of Ukraine.
It is noted that the improvement in sentiment was facilitated by stable consumer demand, a stable situation in the energy sector, budget financing for infrastructure restoration and road construction, a slowdown in inflation, and a stable situation in the foreign exchange market. However, the increasing intensity of shelling, significant costs for restoration, increased tariffs, and a shortage of qualified personnel remained restraining factors.
Thus, in September 2025, the IOSA increased to 50.4 from 49.0 in August 2025 and was higher than the level in September 2024 (48.7).
For the seventh consecutive month, trade enterprises positively assessed their current economic performance and were the most optimistic among respondents due to sufficient supply of goods, brisk demand and slowing inflation: the sectoral index in September increased to 54.0 from 51.8 in August 2025 (in September 2024 – 52.1).
Construction enterprises did not expect changes in their current activities, despite the financing of road construction, stable domestic demand, as well as favorable weather conditions: the sectoral index in September was 50.0 compared to 54.0 in August 2025 (in September 2024 – 50.1).
Industrial enterprises softened their cautious assessments of their performance, despite the further destruction of production capacities and overcoming their consequences, as well as the lack of qualified workers: the sectoral index in September was 49.1 compared to 48.7 in August 2025 (in September 2024 – 50.3).
Service enterprises continued to soften their assessments of their economic prospects, despite increased business costs and complex and high-cost logistics: the sectoral index in September was 49.4 (in August 2025 – 47.0, in September 2024 – 44.6).
Against the background of the expected acceleration in the growth rate of purchase prices, industrial and construction enterprises expected an increase in prices for their own products, and trade enterprises – an increase in the cost of goods purchased for sale. In the services sector, a slowdown in the growth rate of supplier prices and the retention of high estimates of tariffs for own services were expected.
“The situation on the labor market is unstable. As in the previous month, only construction respondents expected an increase in the total number of employees, albeit at a lower rate. Trade enterprises were set for an unchanged total number of employees. In contrast, in industry and the services sector, staff reductions were still expected,” the NBU noted.
