The territory controlled by the Ukrainian government is currently home to between 22 and 25 million people – and the Minister of Social Policy has called this figure a catastrophe. Demographers predicted a population decline back in September of last year, but the reality has turned out to be even more alarming. At the same time, the director of the relevant institute of the National Academy of Sciences gives slightly higher estimates – about 29 million, while last year the figure reached 30 million. The difference in estimates only emphasizes the depth of the demographic crisis.
Such data was announced by the Minister of Social Policy Denys Ulyutin. The Director of the Institute of Demography and Social Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine Ella Libanova gives a figure of approximately 29 million residents of the controlled territory, which is one million less than a year earlier.
“I believe that fewer people live in the controlled territory. This is a catastrophe. 22-25 million,” said Dnys Ulyutin.
Ella Libanova noted that the population decline is mainly due not to a new wave of migration, but to mortality and a general demographic crisis. As of February 2026, about 4.4 million Ukrainians are in the EU countries, and this number continues to grow. According to demographers, less than a million of those who left have returned to their homeland.
Why Ukrainians are in no hurry to return from abroad
Libanova previously warned of a new wave of migration after the lifting of martial law – when women with children who are already abroad can reunite with their husbands. The longer the war lasts, the fewer people plan to return home – this has become a pattern. Demographers have been recording it for several years in a row.
According to other estimates, after the end of hostilities, from 40 to 50% of Ukrainians who are currently abroad will return to Ukraine. This is the most optimistic scenario, and it is possible only under conditions of stable peace. The main factors that will influence the decision to return are security, availability of housing and work.
Population census and the scale of losses
As of February 2026, Ukraine found itself in the epicenter of the deepest demographic crisis since independence. The country lost about 10 million people due to deaths at the front, occupation of territories and mass emigration. The birth rate fell to a historical minimum – less than one child per woman.
An accurate picture of population decline is more difficult to establish due to the lack of an official census. According to the forecast of the head of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, Arsen Marchuk, a population census in Ukraine is possible only one and a half to two years after the end of the war. An estimate of the population size is already being carried out, but this data is not currently disclosed publicly.
