Plans to increase Ukrzaliznytsia’s freight tariffs by 45% could weaken Ukrainian exports, put additional pressure on the hryvnia, and worsen the prospects for economic recovery. RBC-Ukraine writes about this with reference to a column for Interfax-Ukraine by ICC Ukraine President Volodymyr Shchelkunov.
According to him, business today operates in conditions of war, staff shortages, expensive financing, high energy costs, and security risks. At the same time, it is the real sector that provides foreign exchange earnings, taxes, and jobs.
The problem of UZ freight tariffs and what are the consequences of the increase
Schelkunov emphasized that the issue of Ukrzaliznytsia’s tariffs is no longer purely logistical. For farmers, metallurgists, the mining industry, and manufacturers of building materials, rail transportation is an important part of the cost, and therefore directly affects the competitiveness of exports. He separately drew attention to the foreign trade imbalance. According to the results of the first quarter of 2026, Ukraine’s exports of goods amounted to about $10.2 billion, while imports reached $23.4 billion. The negative balance exceeded $13 billion.
“Every dollar of export revenue becomes a strategic resource,” Shchelkunov noted.
He raised the question of the economic justification for such a scale of tariff revision. According to him, if the need of the cargo segment is estimated at 5-15%, then business has the right to ask: what explains the increase of 45%?
Shchelkunov also pointed out the problem of cross-subsidization.
According to UZ’s own estimates, the losses of the passenger segment in 2026 may reach about UAH 25 billion, and together with investment needs, the deficit may amount to UAH 35-38 billion. In his opinion, these costs should not be constantly transferred to shippers.
Among the possible consequences, the expert named:
a reduction in production;
a decrease in exports;
a drop in foreign exchange earnings;
a decrease in tax revenues;
additional pressure on the hryvnia exchange rate.
The business community’s position on the cost of cargo transportation
The President of ICC Ukraine called on the government, the Ministry of Economy and other authorities to assess the macroeconomic consequences of the decision and prevent the increase in freight tariffs above the level of hryvnia devaluation in 2026 relative to 2025.
“Today, Ukraine needs a policy that supports exporters. It is exporters who are the source of currency, investment, employment and economic stability of the state during the war,” Shchelkunov concluded.
As previously reported, Ukrainian industrial, transport and industry associations appealed to Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko and Head of the Presidential Office Kyrylo Budanov with an appeal to prevent an unjustified increase in freight tariffs of Ukrzaliznytsia in 2026. In particular, the appeal emphasizes that a 30% increase will lead to a loss of UAH 96 billion in GDP per year, a reduction in the freight base of Ukrzaliznytsia by 27 million tons, a loss of USD 2.4 billion in export revenue and UAH 36 billion in budget revenues.
