The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has approved a macroeconomic forecast for economic development for 2027–2029, which provides for two scenarios — a more optimistic and a more restrained one. According to the document, Ukraine’s real GDP in 2027 may grow by 4.5% under the optimistic scenario or by 1.3% under the more conservative one. At the same time, inflation in this period is forecast at 8.9% and 8%, respectively.
In 2028, the government expects economic growth to accelerate: GDP may increase by 5.3% or 4.1% depending on the scenario, while inflation will be 6.9% and 8.2%.
In 2029, growth dynamics are forecast to reach 6.7% in the more optimistic scenario and 5% in the restrained one. Inflation is expected to be 5.1% and 5.9%, respectively.
Separately, the government predicts an increase in the average monthly salary. In 2027, it may amount to 34.4–35 thousand UAH, in 2028 — 38.6–39.4 thousand UAH, and in 2029 — 43.2–44.1 thousand UAH. Real salary growth is estimated at 4–6.5%.
At the same time, a significant trade balance deficit remains in all scenarios. In 2027, it could reach about $70.9 billion (exports — $60.4 billion, imports — $131.3 billion), and in subsequent years it will fluctuate within $73–80 billion.
Economic indicators contrast significantly with previous years: in 2025, Ukraine’s GDP growth slowed to 1.8%, while in 2024 it was 2.9%, and in 2023 — 5.5%. Inflation in 2025 decreased to 8% after 12% a year earlier.
