The growth of the dollar rate stopped in the second week of July and froze at the level of about 41 hryvnias. Thus, the situation on the foreign exchange market has stabilized so far, but already in August the situation may seriously change.
Such a forecast was given to “Telegraph” by the head of the treasury department of “Globus” bank Taras Lesovy. According to him, inflation is gradually putting pressure on the exchange rate, but the effect is still accumulating, and the main currency changes should be expected from about the second half of August.
According to the expert, it is hardly worth waiting for something drastic and uncontrollable: thanks to the “managed flexibility” regime, the regulator will be able to avoid any agitational processes by selling currency to reduce demand. In addition, the inflation rate will not exceed the announced forecasts — 5-6% in the second half of the year (in general, inflation is expected to be at the level of 8.2% in 2024).
At the same time, the situation of April-May, when the devaluation of the hryvnia totaled 4%, may repeat itself, which may repeat itself in September-October.
“Since by the end of the year, the expected exchange rate of the dollar may be 42.1 UAH, it can be assumed that from the second half of August to the end of September, new currency corridors will be formed on the market, which will coincide with the economic forecast: 41-42 UAH/$ and 44 -47 hryvnias/€. But as was observed in April-May, the growth of currency rates will not happen suddenly, the exchange rate will simply add several dozen kopecks every day,” Lisovyi emphasized.
As for the period from July 15 to 21, according to the expert, the cash dollar is unlikely to exceed the figure of 41.2 hryvnias, and the difference between buying and selling the currency can be up to 50 kopecks. In general, as experts predict, in July we should expect a moderate depreciation of the hryvnia against the dollar to approximately UAH 41.25.
It will be recalled that Serhiy Fursa, deputy director of securities trading at the investment company Dragon Capital, predicted what indicators the dollar will reach in the second half of 2024.
