According to the NBU forecast, inflation should return to a downward trajectory in the summer and slow down to a single-digit level by the end of the year.
In April 2025, inflation accelerated to 15.1% in annual terms. In monthly terms, prices increased by 0.7%. This is evidenced by data published by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. The growth of consumer prices was slightly lower than the trajectory of the National Bank’s forecast, published in the Inflation Report for April 2025. This was reported by the NBU.
Why did inflation accelerate in April
According to the NBU, the acceleration of inflation in April was largely due to the residual effects of last year’s poor harvests and a further increase in prices for alcoholic beverages and tobacco products. Pro-inflationary factors remained high business costs for labor in conditions of a shortage of personnel and brisk consumer demand. In contrast, the NBU’s measures to maintain a stable situation in the foreign exchange market and interest in hryvnia savings limited price growth. An additional impact was the decline in world oil prices, as well as the weakening of price pressure on the domestic wholesale electricity market.
The growth rate of raw food prices accelerated to 22.2%
Annual prices for raw food continued to grow due to both the residual effects of last year’s low harvests and the impact of short-term April frosts. Flour and cereals, fruits and vegetables (primarily borscht sets) rose more quickly due to the low supply of quality products. An additional factor was the shift in seasonality of demand for certain food products, primarily eggs, due to Easter, which this year fell in April (in 2024 – in May). At the same time, the arrival of imported food products and greenhouse vegetables somewhat restrained the increase in prices.
Core inflation slowed to 12.1%
The growth rate of the cost of processed food products in April did not change (17.3% y/y). The increase in the cost of food raw materials and the further increase in enterprises’ labor costs led to a more rapid increase in the price of bread and bread products, as well as meat products. At the same time, the increase in the price of oil slowed down slightly under the influence of the stabilization of prices on external markets, and the increase in supply contributed to a slower increase in the price of certain dairy products. The growth in the cost of non-food products slowed down to 3.8% y/y. This was facilitated, in particular, by the preservation of a stable situation in the foreign exchange market.
“Inflation in services remained at a fairly high level (14.6% y/y) primarily due to further wage growth and stable consumer demand. Compared to March, the cost of restaurant and hotel services, transport and financial services grew faster. On the other hand, the growth in prices for personal care and insurance services slowed down,” the NBU reported.
Administratively regulated prices increased by 19.5%
The faster increase in the cost of excisable products was due to a further increase in:
production costs;
tax changes (increasing excise duties and converting them into euros, which came into force at the end of March 2025; applying a coefficient of 1.1 to the minimum tax liability from 01.04.25 to 31.12.25) for manufacturers and importers of tobacco products,
strengthening measures to combat shadow supply.
The strengthening of the hryvnia against the dollar has somewhat eased the pressure on prices of pharmaceutical products, medical goods and equipment.
The growth rate of fuel prices has slowed to 3.7%
In April, the growth of fuel prices slowed down compared to March due to the decline in oil prices in the world. At the same time, the gradual increase in demand and the strengthening of the euro exchange rate exerted upward pressure on prices. The growth of consumer prices continued in April, but there were also signs of weakening price pressure. The actual indicators of both general and core inflation in April were somewhat lower than predicted by the NBU forecast. The monthly dynamics of inflation, adjusted for seasonality, also indicated a weakening of price pressure. According to the NBU forecast, inflation should return to a downward trajectory in the summer and slow down to a single-digit level by the end of the year.
As previously reported by Informant, the amount of losses from illegal actions and fraudulent transactions using payment cards in 2024 increased by 37% – to a total of 1.1 billion hryvnias. This is due to an increase in the average amount of one illegal transaction by 39% compared to 2023 (from 3,065 hryvnias in 2023 to 4,247 hryvnias in 2024). This is evidenced by the results of the analysis of statistical data on losses of payment service providers, their clients and merchants received in 2024. The NBU reported this on May 12 and gives advice on how to protect your funds from fraudsters.
