According to the NBU, in 2024, exports of IT services decreased by 4% – $6.45 billion. In 2023, the figure dropped even more: by 8.5% – to $6.73 billion. Before that, the industry was constantly growing, in the most successful years – by 20-30%. However, IT exports are only the tip of the iceberg. In recent years, the volume of the domestic market has been growing (and not only due to the rapid take-off of DefenceTech) and, presumably, has a chance to move from the former “modest” 10% to a more significant share in the overall structure of revenue. So what are the prospects for the external and internal IT markets? Industry leaders spoke about this at the panel discussion “Technology Sector as a Catalyst for the Ukrainian Economic Miracle” during the event dedicated to the 3rd anniversary of “Diya.City”. Mind noted the most interesting and clarified with the speakers.
Are there any chances to increase IT exports in 2025? “The answer to this question depends on two factors: the global economic situation and achieving a fair peace in Ukraine. Currently, we are observing a rather sharp policy of the new US president, which affects both the markets and the fact that investors are a little afraid to spend money,” Sigma Software co-founder and CEO Valeriy Krasovsky told Mind.
However, the first “swallows” of possible growth are already there. “We have begun to feel a gradual recovery. We are observing it in the IT labor market in Ukraine, where the demand for specialists is increasing. This indicates an increase in orders. Many new projects with artificial intelligence are also starting, which should additionally drive the demand for IT specialists in Ukraine,” Krasovsky clarifies.
What growth in IT exports does the industry expect in 2025? “Let’s first reach a plateau, and then think about growth,” laughs the co-founder of Sigma Software. But he adds that there is a chance to reach a plateau: “I’m almost sure. Of course, currency liberalization would not hurt, then more money would come into Ukraine. Although we understand that during the war, the policy of the National Bank should be very balanced.”
What are the dynamics of the domestic market? According to approximate estimates, in 2021 its volume amounted to $1.53 billion or 18% of the total industry turnover of $8.47 billion, in 2022 – $0.64 billion or 8% of $7.98 billion, in 2023 – $0.71 billion or 9.6% of $7.43 billion, according to the study “Where IT is at War.” There are currently no fresh figures for 2024.
But these data do not include two important indicators that have been driving the growth of the domestic market in recent years: mostly closed information on the dynamics of DefenceTech volumes and the turnover of IT departments of companies from other industries. So far, no research company has been able to conduct such research in Ukraine.
Executive Director of the IT Ukraine Association Maria Shevchuk explains that the message about the decline of the industry may be somewhat exaggerated if all its components are counted. “So far, the research does not take into account the penetration of IT technologies into other industries. Meanwhile, there are already many companies in Ukraine that have IT in-house teams. We are talking about banks, market chains, the agricultural sector, etc. Of course, their data does not fall into IT export, but they definitely drive the industry. For example, one of the strongest clusters within our association is AgriTech, which is joined by large agricultural holdings. Each of them is an IT unit that can be structured as a separate company or as an in-house team. Therefore, it is difficult to measure the overall indicators,” she clarified.
Taras Kytsmey added: “So far, we are not noticing a lot. For example, the financial sector of Ukraine is one of the best in the world. The same goes for AgriTech. A sea of IT specialists are already entering AgriTech.”
What are the prospects for the domestic market in 2025? The main driver of growth, of course, will remain MilitaryTech – even after the end of the war. The country will need to continue to strengthen its defense capabilities. In addition, domestic companies will be able to export their technologies.
“In general, in the private sector, we are observing an increase in demand for IT services from various industries. For example, we have clients from the banking sector and pharmaceutical companies. And this demand for internal digitalization will continue to grow. And the digitalization of the public sector largely depends on donors. USAID supported a lot of projects. What their future fate is, it is difficult to say at the moment. There is not much domestic money for digitalization. However, I think that funds will still be found. Perhaps European countries will start supporting Ukraine more,” explained Valeriy Krasovsky.
What is the principle of trust here? The future fate of the industry will also depend on the number of IT specialists. Currently, the industry employs about 330,000 specialists. But there is a risk that after the borders open, many of them will emigrate abroad. Previously, CEO of the Lviv IT cluster Stepan Veselovsky predicted that after the end of the war, in an optimistic scenario, 19,000−20,000 IT specialists would leave Ukraine, in the worst case this figure could reach 74,000−75,000.
“There was a recent meeting of IT specialists with Vice Prime Minister Oleksiy Chernyshov. We talked about how to return people to Ukraine. Currently, 32 million people live in the country. If we do not change anything, 20 million will remain. First of all, people should have trust in the state. Why, for example, the idea of “Diya.City”
“Chatka was stalled? Because we started at a low threshold of trust between the state and the IT industry. Now the level of trust between us has increased significantly. So if we don’t create a conditional “Diya.City” for the entire state, it will be difficult,” explained Taras Kytsmey.
“Let’s block your bank account for two weeks and figure out what’s going on there.” And the presumption of innocence should finally work,” emphasizes the co-founder of SoftServe.
